What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, manifests mainly in airstrikes, attracted widespread controversy media and politics as well large body (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background ways to escape it. Complementary these efforts connecting on oil conflict, this study provides unique quantitative insights into what drives extent interaction. We use vector autoregressive (VAR) model analyse interactions between airstrikes Yemen, gains movement Yemeni ground, their attacks Arabian soil, crude prices. Our approach builds high-resolution data from Yemen Data Project Armed Conflict Location Event Project. results show not only that airstrike campaign been factually impotent repulse but also movement’s expansion driven airstrikes. These findings draw both suitability justification further question. Moreover, although fail price levels drive developments, our identifies volatility determinant for However, has, turn, no significant effect markets. Besides adding discourse have implications energy climate policy: coordinated transition might deteriorate regional security, while uncertainty fluctuations can increase conflict potential.